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Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1

at GA DTR Store Championships

decks
4 (26.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19 9-8-2
overall winrate
52.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.9% avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
50.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1264 · median 1242 · range 1139–1431 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1139 Q1 1237 Q3 1382 1460
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 33.3% 7 2-4-1 35.7% 40.9% 46.6% -1.7
Fire Crux Mage 13.3% 5 1-3-1 30.0% 38.9% 45.5% -2.6
Water Aetherwing 13.3% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 65.2% +14.6
Wind Shadowstrike 13.3% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 67.6% +16.9
Fire Exia 6.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.4% +0.4
Fire Luxem Assassin 6.7% 0
Fire Suzaku 6.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.2% +19.5
Wind Allies 6.7% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Fire Firebloom Burn decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Viridian Protective Trinket -1.00 0 1 0
Scathing Seminary -1.00 0 1 0
Ignis Deus -1.00 0 1 0
Intensified Pyre -1.00 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs -1.00 0 1 0
Necklace of Foresight +1.00 1 0 0
Creative Shock +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern +1.00 1 0 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish +1.00 1 0 0
Flameblessed Trainee +1.00 1 0 0
Hasty Messenger +1.00 1 0 0
Sigil of Budding Embers +1.00 1 0 0
Blazing Throw -1.00 0 1 0
Maiden of Shimmering Air +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Fanatical Devotee -1.00 0 1 0
Fiery Interference -1.00 0 1 0
Fractal of Insight +1.00 1 0 0
Acolyte of Cultivation +1.00 1 0 0
Impact Hammer -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/32288/archetypes/Fire Firebloom Burn